Sunday, June 11, 2006

Twosies

Nevada Refinance
Nevada Refinance Counter

There are two schools of thought about the NBA Finals after a bizzare Game 1. Some people think that the Mavs are head and shoulders above the Heat; others think Shaq will come alive, and the Heat supporting cast will begin to come alive keeping the series within reach. Well, let me say this about that: The Heat were overmatched in Game 1, and everyone wearing red not named Dwyane Wade played terrible. So everyone is right... for now.

If you're in the Heat's camp, here is what you have to be worried about. Your team lost despite the two best players for the Mavs playing horribly. The most streaky player on the Mavs may have found a hot hand that is nearly impossible to guard. And the Mavs played pretty damn good defense on Shaq.

On the other hand, you can look at the games like this. Shaq missed nearly all of his free throws, a statistic that should even out over time. You still have another game to steal home court. Dwyane Wade should be 100 percent this time around.

But what about the good guys? There are two things to hope for.

1. Dirk bounces back in a big way. I'm not asking for 50 points because that's just special. Over 30? Is that too much? Dirk played pretty good defense in Game 1, but he was hounded on defense. If you think the Heat defense is going to hold Dirk to a poor shooting percentage for the entire series, you are terribly mistaken. Dirk is so good that he'll find a way around the defense. Expect a big Dirk game.

2. Stay with me on this one. I have been playing this shareware craps program on my computer. I wait for a hot roll and then I walk away. Sometimes the hot roll never comes, sometimes I have to wait, and sometimes it comes in a big way. For instance, I was down 60 bucks and the next thing I knew, I was up 600, playing $5 craps (unfortunately, it's not for real money). Next thing I know, seven comes out and my fun is over. Why is this relevant to the Mavs? Because JET is just like playing craps. You get the board all set up, and you just ride the streak. His second-half in Game 6 and entire Game 1 has been a good roll. So I'm pressing all my bets and hitting the numbers. So I want to press more because the streak is going well. It's just a matter of time before it ends, but you don't think about it. You don't even say the dreaded words; you just keep on pressing and rolling. And that's what JET's gonna do. He's gonna shoot 'til he misses. And when he finally does, he's going to reset. But for now, the Mavs need to ride this streak all the way to the bank.

If the Mavs win tonight, we still won't know anything about the series because the old rule is that a series doesn't start until a home team loses. It will be interesting to see what happens in Game 3.

As for what Alonzo Mourning said about the Heat coming with things that the Mavs would be unable to defend. I laugh in his face. Not because I don't think they can do it; it's because he sounded so insecure in his assessment. He was talking just to be heard. The only change Riley is going to make in Game 2 is give Walker less playing time as he proved ineffective in nearly every facet of the game and give Shaq a few more touches. The Mavs may have to work harder since it won't be 6-on-4 with Walker off the court.

Mavs will win.

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